OH DEAR, OH DEAR – AT 9:19 A.M. ET:  A new economic report on New York State is grim.  It's important, because this state report has tended to predict national economic conditions a bit down the road.  From CNBC:

A gauge of manufacturing in New York State showed the sector unexpectedly contracted for the second month in a row as new orders worsened, while core inflation rose at its highest pace in three years.

The pace of manufacturing decline did moderate somewhat in July from the month before, with the New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index rising to minus 3.76 from minus 7.79 in June. However, it was still weaker than expected, since economists polled by Reuters had expected a reading of 4.50.

The survey of manufacturing plants in the state is one of the earliest monthly guideposts to U.S. factory conditions.

COMMENT:  We're told that, technically, we're in a recovery.  Make sure to tell that to your unemployed neighbor, who can't send his kids to college.  I'm sure he'll have a nice day.

We are in trouble.  What is the Obama administration offering?  I haven't noticed anything.

July 15, 2011